The 2025/26 Ethiopian coffee season has been one of records and contradictions: the largest national crop on the books, paired with the tightest washed-coffee supply Guji buyers have faced in years. For roasters and importers planning the rest of 2026 and the 2026/27 harvest, the headline volume figures tell only half the story. Below is where the season stands, what moved prices, and what it means for sourcing Guji specialty lots.
How big is the 2025/26 Ethiopian crop?
Ethiopia's 2025/26 production is projected at roughly 11.56 million 60-kg bags — about 694,000 metric tons — the highest output the country has ever recorded and a 9% increase over the prior season, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Exports are forecast at 7.8 million bags, up around 11% year-on-year. This follows a 2024/25 fiscal year in which Ethiopia exported roughly 469,000 metric tons for a record ~$2.65 billion in revenue.
The growth is real, but it's not evenly distributed — and for Guji buyers, the national total is misleading.
Why is Guji coffee tighter this season despite a record crop?
There is a clear yield split between Ethiopia's south and west this season. Southern regions — Yirgacheffe, Sidama and Guji — saw lower productivity, while western origins such as Limu, Kaffa and Benchmaji had a bumper year. The record national figure is driven largely by the west. So even as Ethiopia ships more coffee than ever, the high-altitude southern specialty regions that define Guji's reputation produced less.
On the ground, the harvest also began two to three weeks later than usual across the south. The upside: dry weather through the picking and drying window supported good drying conditions, and early quality indicators have been positive across origins. Cup quality this season is strong — the constraint is volume, not quality.
What happened to cherry and export prices?
Cherry prices surged dramatically. In the southern regions, fresh cherry peaked at around 220–250 ETB/kg in December 2025 — roughly a fourfold increase over recent seasons. Three forces drove it: the devaluation and floating of the Ethiopian birr, elevated global Arabica prices, and sharply higher labour costs.
The labour shift is stark. Producers in Guji have reported paying up to 50 ETB per kilogram of cherry for picking, against 50 ETB per day only a few seasons ago. Those costs flow straight into FOB pricing.
As an indicative range for the 2025/26 crop, specialty-grade Guji, Yirgacheffe and Sidama lots have generally commanded around $5.00–$8.00+ per pound FOB, with commercial grades nearer $3.00–$4.50. These are market-level ranges, not firm offers — actual pricing depends on grade, lot, processing and availability at time of inquiry.
A further complication: Ethiopia's minimum export prices, set by the National Bank and adjusted weekly, stayed relatively high while the New York "C" market fluctuated. That divergence between firm local minimums and a softer global benchmark has created genuine pricing tension for buyers used to differential-based purchasing — and makes forward commitments more valuable for managing exposure.
The washed-to-natural shift: what changed
The most important structural story of 2025/26 is a shift from washed to natural processing. After strong prices for dried naturals in 2024/25, many smallholders chose to dry-process cherry at home rather than deliver it fresh to washing stations — they retain more value that way. Some washing stations also faced limited harvest financing.
The result is a structural imbalance: naturals are more abundant this season, washed volumes are down, and the gap has widened as the season has progressed. For roasters who build programmes around clean, jasmine-led washed Guji lots — particularly from Uraga — this is the season's defining constraint. If washed Grade 1 is central to your offering, early commitment for the next harvest is the practical response. (See washed vs natural processing for how each method shapes the cup.)
EUDR and certification: where things stand
The EU Deforestation Regulation timeline has been pushed back, with implementation now set for 30 December 2026, giving the supply chain more runway. Leading Ethiopian partners are already building farm-level traceability and geo-mapping to comply. Separately, EU organic certification has become harder to maintain at the cooperative level — new requirements for individual farmer certification (rather than group certification) have raised costs and administrative burden, and the availability of EU-certified organic Ethiopian coffee has declined this season. Buyers with organic requirements should confirm certification status early rather than assume continuity from prior crops.
Where the 2025/26 buying calendar stands now
With the harvest essentially complete, here is the practical state of play:
- Oct–Dec 2025: Early arrivals. Buyers who committed here secured the best Guji and Yirgacheffe lots first.
- Jan–Feb 2026: Peak window. Widest selection; most washed G1 lots were committed here.
- Mar–Apr 2026: Main shipments departing; pre-shipment samples and documentation in motion.
- May–Jul 2026 (now): Late season. Limited selection, but fill-in opportunities remain, and it's the right moment to open conversations and forward commitments for the 2026/27 harvest. See the full Ethiopian coffee harvest calendar for sampling and shipping windows.
What this means for your sourcing strategy
Three takeaways for the rest of 2026:
- Commit early for washed Guji. Washed volumes are structurally tighter this season and likely to stay firm into 2026/27. Forward commitments secure both allocation and pricing certainty. The buyer's guide walks through contracts, payment terms, and shipping.
- Be open to naturals. With more natural-processed Guji available, well-selected naturals — blueberry from Hambela, stone-fruit from Shakiso, and strawberry-jam profiles — offer strong value where your programme allows.
- Confirm traceability and certification up front. With EUDR approaching and organic certification in flux, choose exporters who can document farm-level traceability and current certification rather than discovering gaps late.
Frequently asked questions
Is Guji coffee available now, mid-2026?
The 2025/26 harvest is largely shipped, so selection is limited this late in the season, with occasional fill-in lots. The more productive conversation now is forward commitment for the 2026/27 crop, particularly for washed Grade 1.
Why are Guji prices high despite Ethiopia's record crop?
The record total is driven by western Ethiopia. Southern specialty regions including Guji had lower yields, and cherry prices surged roughly fourfold (to ~220–250 ETB/kg) on birr devaluation, strong global prices and higher labour costs.
Are washed or natural Guji lots easier to source this season?
Naturals. Many farmers home-dried cherry rather than selling fresh to washing stations, so naturals are more abundant and washed volumes are down. Roasters needing washed G1 should commit early.
Does EUDR affect buying Guji coffee now?
EUDR implementation is now set for 30 December 2026. It doesn't block current purchases, but buyers should work with exporters who already have farm-level traceability and geo-mapping in place.
What does Guji specialty coffee cost FOB?
Indicative 2025/26 ranges put specialty Guji around $5.00–$8.00+ per pound FOB, with commercial grades lower. Final pricing depends on grade, lot and availability — request a current offer for exact figures.
Last reviewed: June 2026. Figures reflect USDA FAS 2025/26 estimates and prevailing trade conditions, and are indicative rather than firm offers. For current Guji lot availability and pricing, request our latest offers.